Exit Polls Massachusetts Senate Race

Exit Polls Massachusetts Senate Race

Exit polls in the Massachusetts Senate race aren't out yet and won't be for a while. Yet early polls in the Massachusetts Senate race already seem to favor Scott Brown. For weeks, everyone has said that if a Republican won Ted

Exit Polls for Massachusetts Senate Race Must Save Coakley
Kennedy's Senate seat, it would be an historic upset. Yet considering the recent buzz, and the panic from Democratic leadership, it might be more of an upset if Martha Coakley won. The exit polls of the Massachusetts Senate race will provide the first solid clues.

Unlike other elections, exit polls in Massachusetts may not be available until closing time, at 8 p.m. EST. This is the state's first special election in a long time and for a seat that hasn't been this wide open in decades, so everything is new to them. This includes the prospect of a Republican sitting in Ted Kennedy's seat.

However, thanks to recent polls, a victory for Scott Brown over Martha Coakley doesn't look that shocking anymore. Most data shows them dead even, or has Brown taking the lead. All of a sudden, Coakley is now the underdog in the Massachusetts Senate race.

The threat is so real that Democratic leadership is scrambling just in case Brown wins and can pass the 41st vote against the health care bill. The easy narrative is that the Democrats and President Obama are reeling and will be all but dead in 2010 and even 2012 if Brown wins. The exit polls may not back that view yet, but the polls so far have started to do so.

According to Politico, Brown was up by as many as 9 points in a Sunday poll. Most others vary in the deficit, but it seems Brown is either ahead or tied in all of them. At this point, the actual Massachusetts Senate race seems to have already been decided, before the voters were done.

The dominant narrative is on what the Democrats will do when Brown wins - not if he wins. Since the exit polls won't come out until tonight, this storyline will continue for at least several more hours. Of course, if this is the 'public perception' of things, then it could take hold among the remaining voters - or drive a last ditch effort for Coakley supporters. The shocking thing is that Coakley even needs a last ditch effort to win - or at least it was shocking weeks ago.

Yet thanks to the early polls of the Massachusetts Senate race, and how easy it is to paint her and the Democrats as reeling, that's what things have come to. Tonight's first exit polls could either finish off the inevitable - or be a Dewey vs. Truman like miracle for the
Exit Polls for Massachusetts Senate Race Must Save Coakley
left.