Here’s a look at how S&P futures (red) and the price of the 10-year T-note moved after the release. Clear move toward risk. Seems like the markets liked the look of some of the numbers buried in thereport. Temporary help services rose — usually considered a leading indicator of hiring — added 52,000 jobs in January. Manufacturing added a modest 11,000, but after the steep recession that looks pretty good. Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar says it’s the first add since November 2007 in that sector. Michael Shaoul, chief executive at brokerage firm Oscar Gruss, had this to say on the hiring in manufacturing:
“While this number itself it not significant there is every reason to believe that sizeable re-hiring by Industrialists will be required in order to reverse the inventory drawdown, therefore unlike the last two recoveries in which manufacturing job growth was a non factor (indeed it was a non-factor throughout the 2003-8 expansion) the next 12-18 months may see a sizeable increase in employment in this sector.”
After an initial bump, the dollar (grey) slipped on the report. While gold (red) has traditionally been thought of as a safety asset, in recent months its behaved much more as a risk play. True to that form, it increased off thereport along with the general risk appetite. The initial weakness in the dollar hasn’t lasted however, which makes us think that concern about the situation in Europe is still pretty strong out there.
And about an hour after the report — below — the dollar is flexing its muscles again. Crude looks to be losing most of the pop it received after the report. The price for the 10-year is rising too as demand for safety seems to remain pretty strong out there.
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